TBD Locked

Quantifying unpredictable token supply and governance risk

Data Coverage & Project Disclosures

Tokenomist’s classifications are based on publicly available information, on-chain data, and verifiable disclosures. In some cases, particularly for operational distributions such as grants, incentives, or internal allocations, release mechanics may not be fully observable using these methods.

Projects that maintain additional documentation, internal tracking, or updated governance decisions that are not reflected in our data are encouraged to reach out. Where information can be independently verified, we will update classifications accordingly and document the change transparently in the History Log.

Overview

The Problem: Not All Unlocks Are Timed

Standard, time-based vesting schedules are only part of the story. A significant portion of a project's token supply is often allocated without a publicly verifiable release schedule. This supply can often be based on unpredictable events, not a fixed calendar.

• Governance votes

• Achievement of specific roadmap milestones

• Internal processes not transparently tracked

As a result, analysts face a data visibility gap. Tokens may be allocated, partially distributed, or reserved, with exact release timing and remaining balance unable to be reliably confirmed.

Our Solution: TBD (To Be Determined) Locked

To solve this, we introduced TBD Locked, a classification that accounts for this uncertain supply.

TBD Locked refers to tokens that are allocated but do not have a predetermined release date. Their release mechanics are not governed by a publicly verifiable, time-based schedule and may depend on future events, internal decisions, or ongoing operational distributions.

Not all TBD Locked supply represents immediate or latent market sell pressure. In practice, TBD Locked includes two broad categories

Event-Gated TBD Locked: unlocks contingent on a discrete, observable trigger. For example, a governance vote assigning a vesting schedule. These allocations may present future supply overhang.

Operational TBD Locked: tokens allocated for ongoing uses (grants, incentives, ecosystem spend). The distribution for this supply occurs incrementally or off-schedule, and it may not be possible to verify the remaining balance independently. These allocations represent accounting uncertainty, not sudden market risk.

Why TBD Locked Matters for Analysis

• Identify Areas of Supply Uncertainty: A large TBD Locked allocation signals that a portion of supply lacks a publicly verifiable release schedule. In some cases, this may represent potential future market supply. In others, it reflects limited transparency into operational distributions already underway.

• Assess Governance Power: A treasury with a large TBD Locked allocation potentially holds significant, deployable capital. Tracking this is key to understanding the resources a foundation or DAO has to influence the ecosystem.

• Track Changes Over Time: TBD Locked amounts are dynamic. We monitor governance proposals and announcements quarterly, and any changes are recorded in the History Log with links to the source. This helps you to follow the evolution of a project's tokenomics with a verifiable proof.

• Separate Market Risk from Data Gaps: TBD Locked does not imply that all tokens are idle or immediately deployable. Rather, it highlights where supply dynamics cannot be precisely modeled due to incomplete disclosure or tracking limitations.

Methodology

Definitions

• TBD Locked Supply (To Be Determined Locked): Refers to tokens that are allocated but do not have a predetermined release date. Their unlock is depends on future events, such as governance votes or team decisions. On our charts, this is visualized with a striped pattern.

• Locked Supply: Locked tokens of a known, time-based release schedule.

• Unlocked Supply: Unlocked tokens of a known, time-based release schedule.

• Available Supply: Unlocked Supply + TBD Locked Supply

Generic Example of a TBD Locked Supply

TBD Locked Supply → Trigger Event → Time-based Release Schedule → Unlocked Supply

Example Case: Arbitrum ($ARB) Governance

A real-world example is how we handle the Arbitrum DAO Treasury.

• Initial State: Initially, a large portion of the treasury's supply had no defined unlock schedule, so we classified it as TBD Locked.

• Trigger Event: The Arbitrum community passed AIP-1.1, a governance proposal that assigned a 4-year vesting schedule to a specific portion of the treasury funds.

• The Update: Following this vote, we updated our data. The affected tokens were converted from the uncertain TBD Locked to the predictable Locked Supply (time-based release schedule).

• The Verifiable Proof: This change is documented transparently in the History Log, which details the proposal, the amount of tokens affected, and the new unlock dates.

Accessing TBD

We represent TBD with a distinct striped pattern on our charts in the Token Page, allowing you to differentiate between predictable time-locked tokens and this more uncertain event-locked supply.

Additionally, you can compare TBD supply allocated to token stakeholders, shown as a striped bar chart, on the Allocation Comparison page.

Using TBD

1. See Which Allocations are Affected

It’s not enough to know that TBD supply exists; you need to know who holds it. The Allocation component on the Token page shows you exactly which stakeholder holds these event-based tokens. This helps you determine if the uncertain supply is in the project's treasury, earmarked for community incentives, or held by another party.

2. Visualize on the Release Schedule

On the token page’s release schedule, TBD Locked tokens appear as a striped block. This signifies their potential to be unlocked at any point in the future, subject to the required conditions being met. When a formal release schedule is approved for these tokens, they are converted from "TBD Locked" to "Locked" on our chart.

3. Tracking Changes with the Historical Logs

TBD Locked amounts are not static. When a project sets a release timing schedule, a portion of these tokens become a known Locked Supply, reducing the overall TBD Locked amount.

We keep track of these allocations and update them as decisions are made. You can see the details with proofs in the History Log, which provides a transparent, auditable trail of all changes to a project's tokenomics.